I was sieving through some historical data on Nifty ..There was some curious observations that I have made particularly on the data between the months of December and January for the past 5 years...Hope you would concur on the same and get benefitted by these
My interpretation is as follows :
Oct 2001 – Jan 2002
Nifty starts its onward journey around 5-Oct 2001 and reaches its peak by 12-dec-2001.
Oct 2002– Jan 2003
Nifty starts its onward journey around 10-Oct 2002 and reaches its peak by 30-dec-2002.
Oct 2003– Jan 2004
Nifty starts working its way around 1-Oct 2003 and reaches its peak by 15-Jan-2004.
Oct 2004– Jan 2005
Nifty starts rising from around 25-Oct 2004 and reaches its peak by 2 -Jan-2005.
Plan A for this winter 2005 – Jan 2006
Nifty starts its ascension around 25-Oct 2004 making history on every trading day. The bulls are making merry at the moment. But, something tells me that the euphoria would be shortlived.Looks like the market is being heavily manipulated.
Titan Industies has one of the lowest delivery volumes, yet, appreciated by 100% in 2 months.This stock has been gang-raped repeatedly.
Ranbaxy would have been totally written off for comng up with such a poor result,but for some market players,its riding reasonably high.All crests,but , no troughs is worrying.Damn those mutual funds and FIIs. they must be heavily taxed.
Whatever business Godrej Industries is doing,would you believe a turnaround in business fortunes amounting to 20% capital appreciation in just one day? Such meterorical rise acts against the interest of retailers(aka gullible investors).
My universe of stocks is narrowing down to around 50 these days.
For retailers, historical data points to market peaking out by 1 st week of Jan 2006. So, if you are still invested in the markets, book profits by last week of December and stay in cash. It’s a murky world out there with the bears taking a nap for the moment.
Theres nothing to be worried about for the moment. Absolutely no need to panic. Yeah.No need to panic.No need to panic. What are you still waiting for ? I am politely saying “Get out of the markets.You don’t have much time left".
For those who are yet to plan their exit strategy, have your Plan B and Plan C ready with you by end December 2005.For those willing to hang around for a longer period of time, I would recommend the below stocks for the moment as these look like a safe bet.
Guj NRE Coke ( best buy below 110 ) - Iron Ore
IPCL ( Buy below 230 ) - Oil
India Bulls ( Buy in small lots below 155 ) - Financial Services
Oriental Bank of Commerce ( buy below 250 ) - Banking
Arvind Mills ( buy below 110 ) - Textile
Intuition tells me that Indian Oil ( below 505 ) ,Financial Technologies(Financial) and Selan Exoration Technologies(Oil) also look attactive at the moment, but, I leave this to the discretion of the reader.
Look towards paring exposures upon appreciation by 10-20 %.
The author wishes to disclose that he has position in all the above except Indian Oil and Financial Technologies.
On a parting note, Financial Technologies chart gives me an Oooommph!!!! Look at its historical data...People would have made a killing in it!!!
Happy minting money.
Cheers,
Sajeeth.K
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